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Huge Tech stoop pushes Nasdaq sharply decrease amid China’s AI push
The opening bell has rung on Wall Road, and know-how shares have plunged, with the tech-heavv Nasdaq shedding 3.5%.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fell to their lowest ranges in additional than per week, as the recognition of a low-cost Chinese language AI mannequin rattled international know-how shares.
The Nasdaq tumbled by greater than 700 factors to 19,250, because the US chipmaker Nvidia fell by 12.3%.
Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google mother or father Alphabet misplaced between 2.2% and three.6% whereas AI server makers Dell Applied sciences and Tremendous Micro Pc slid by 7.2% and eight.9%.
The broader S&P 500 misplaced 130 factors, or 2.1%, on the open whereas the Dow Jones fell by 260 factors, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 info know-how sector has misplaced 4.6%, and is on observe for its largest day by day decline since September 2022.
European and Japanese tech shares have additionally slumped because the emergence of a Chinese language chatbot competitor to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, DeepSeek, raised doubts in regards to the sustainability of the US synthetic intelligence growth.
The DeepSeek AI assistant topped the Apple app retailer within the US and UK over the weekend, above OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Key occasions
Lagarde warns of ‘vicious circle’ if central financial institution independence is undermined
Central financial institution independence is being challenged in components of the world and higher political affect may undermined banks’ skill to maintain inflation down, risking financial volatility, in keeping with European Central Financial institution president Christine Lagarde.
Donald Trump stated final week he would demand that the Federal Reserve decrease borrowing prices, claiming that he knew rates of interest significantly better than folks in control of making that call.
Whereas the remark is taken into account extra rhetoric than a plan to curtail the Fed’s independence, politicians have been encroaching on an space that has been off limits to them for many years.
Lagarde instructed a Hungarian central financial institution convention:
Whereas latest analysis means that de jure central financial institution independence has by no means been extra prevalent than it’s at the moment, there is no such thing as a doubt that the de facto independence of central banks is being known as into query in a number of components of the world.
She warned that political interference may result in a “vicious circle” that may lead to central financial institution independence being undermined.
Political affect on central financial institution choices may contribute considerably to macroeconomic volatility.
The Fed is anticipated to maintain rates of interest on maintain on Wednesday whereas the ECB is prone to minimize charges by 1 / 4 level a day after. America’s central financial institution will argue that inflation is coming down solely slowly and that some coverage proposals of the Trump administration may enhance worth pressures.
Lagarde stated persistent political stress on a central financial institution will increase trade price volatility, and raises bond yields and the chance premia. This kind of volatility may make it tougher to maintain inflation down, elevating considerations that unbiased central banks are failing to ship on their mandates, she argued.
Such a sequence of occasions, she stated, may then undermine the social consensus and additional amplify volatility within the financial system.
She spoke in a video deal with to Hungary, the place prime minister Viktor Orban’s political ally, former finance minister Mihaly Varga, was appointed because the financial institution’s subsequent governor from March.
Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Funding Institute, talking after Lagarde, stated independence will not be a given.
We haven’t been in a scenario the place we have now to cope with inflation at such a excessive debt degree.
The battle that’s going to create to me is actual.
That independence will not be one thing you simply assert, it’s one thing you should handle and that administration goes to get actually tough now going ahead.
Many central banks ramped rates of interest up in recent times to fight hovering inflation, limiting authorities’s skill to spend simply as fast worth progress eroded actual incomes.
Peter Kazimir, Slovakia’s central financial institution chief and an ECB policymaker, expects extra battle with governments over this inflation response. Kazimir stated in Budapest:
Finance ministers and central financial institution governors are usually not in the identical boat, this temptation to play the blame sport is fairly excessive, particularly when inflation is so excessive.
We have been the very best good friend of finance ministers with very low charges. However we aren’t anymore.
Gyorgy Matolcsy, Hungary’s outgoing central financial institution chief, who clashed with Orban at occasions, additionally backed independence.
Typically there will likely be fights, skirmishes, debates, however you must be adamant for retaining your central financial institution unbiased.
With reference to automation and synthetic intelligence:
The automation of tens of millions of jobs will enhance inequality within the UK until the federal government intervenes to help small companies and employees via the transition, in keeping with a report into the way forward for work.
Ministers have to act within the curiosity of those that will likely be made unemployed or whose jobs dramatically change, says the report by the Institute for the Way forward for Work (IFOW) thinktank, to be able to stop expertise shortages hitting employers and employees from struggling a decline in job satisfaction and wellbeing.
Synthetic intelligence software program is anticipated to grow to be a widespread device in factories, workplaces and within the public sector, demanding new expertise, the IFOW stated. Nonetheless, a survey of 5,000 UK staff discovered “a pervasive sense of tension, worry and uncertainty” in regards to the introduction of AI know-how, and what it may do to their work.
TikTok is again within the US – however Apple and Google are usually not certain if it ought to be.
The brief video app has but to look on the tech firms’ app shops, reflecting an unease in regards to the White Home govt order that has given TikTok the arrogance to renew operations after quickly shuttering the service on 18 January. Apple and Google don’t seem to agree.
The laws forbade firms from distributing, sustaining or updating TikTok – as an illustration, promoting it on an app retailer – after a deadline of 19 January. However the govt order, signed inside hours of Donald Trump’s return to the White Home, suspended for 75 days enforcement of an act that demanded the Beijing-based proprietor of TikTok, ByteDance, promote the app’s US operation or face a de facto ban.
The order seeks to reassure firms that work with TikTok that they won’t be prosecuted for retaining the social media app on US customers’ smartphone screens. It additionally instructs the legal professional common – who leads the Division of Justice (DoJ) – to subject a letter reassuring these entities that the regulation has not been violated and there’s no legal responsibility for his or her conduct.
Bond yields fall, yen and Swiss franc bounce in rush for safe-haven belongings
Bond yields have fallen, as traders rushed to purchase authorities bonds, thought of a protected funding, amid the worldwide sell-off in tech shares – triggered by the recognition of a brand new free Chinese language synthetic intelligence app.
The yield, or rate of interest, on Germany’s 10-year bond, the benchmark for the eurozone, fell by 7 foundation factors to 2.476%, after rising to 2.569% on Friday. Yields transfer in other way to costs. The Italian bond yield fell by 4 foundation factors to three.616%.
Within the UK, the 10-year gilt yield dropped by 6 foundation factors to 4.574%.
The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc jumped in opposition to different main currencies within the rush for safe-haven belongings. The yen rallied by 1.3% versus the greenback, rising as excessive as 153.73, its highest degree since mid-December. The Swiss franc rose by almost 1% to $0.8972.
The greenback gave up earlier positive aspects and is now down by 0.3% in opposition to a basket of main currencies.
Additional plans for US tariffs are additionally on traders’ minds, forward of a number of central financial institution conferences later this week, together with the US Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to carry rates of interest regular on Wednesday, and the European Central Financial institution on Thursday, which is anticipated to chop charges by 1 / 4 level.
America and Colombia pulled again from the brink of a commerce warfare on Sunday after Colombia agreed to just accept navy plane carrying deported migrants.
Deutsche Financial institution analyst George Saravelos has checked out China’s AI push and what it means for the world.
The emergence of a brand new AI know-how at less expensive growth price ought to be interpreted as a broadly optimistic provide shock, he stated.
The advantages of AI would disseminate to the worldwide financial system at quicker pace and greater scale, finally permitting for quicker productiveness positive aspects. From a worldwide macro perspective this interprets to greater progress however much less inflation, finally optimistic for bond and fairness markets on the similar time. If know-how dissemination is extra international and reduces a US-specific technological benefit, the affect ought to be thought of to be a marginal greenback detrimental.
However what in regards to the short- to medium-term implications?
The clearest analogy that involves thoughts is the DotCom unwind of the 2000s. What was the affect?
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A big fairness sell-off that spilled over to the true financial system and led to a light recession led by a capital expenditure unwind;
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By extension, a extra dovish Fed and a rally in bond markets;
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An initially combined response to the USD on risk-aversion however finally a weaker greenback through an unwind of fairness inflows and narrowing price differentials versus the remainder of the world.
All the above should be thought of within the context of a brand new US administration with a probably extra activist president, the place we might add a number of further implications:
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The chances of a extra aggressive internet fiscal easing would possible go up;
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The chances of a probably extra aggressive containment coverage vis-à-vis China would possible go up, within the context of a shrinking technological lead;
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The chances of a extra aggressive non-China tariff coverage within the context of higher US progress vulnerabilities would go down.
He added:
Taking all of it collectively we might assess the incoming newsflow as finally working in a greenback detrimental path, even when the preliminary market response has been greenback optimistic. We’re not altering any views for now however we’re actually attentive to the sharpness of US fairness strikes within the context of what’s interpreted as a serious technological development.
Ryanair hints fares may go up
Jasper Jolly
Ryanair has minimize its forecasts for passenger progress, blaming delays in new planes from US producer Boeing, and hinted that fares may go up within the coming 12 months.
The Irish finances airline stated it expects to hold 206m passengers through the 12 months to March 2026, down from the 210m beforehand focused.
Boeing has been struggling to lift its price of manufacturing of its bestselling 737 Max, a 12 months after a mid-air door panel blow-out centered intense scrutiny on its security file. Kelly Ortberg was introduced in to show the corporate round, solely to face crippling strikes over pay at its Seattle factories.
Neil Sorahan, Ryanair’s chief monetary officer, stated that Boeing delays have been “the one factor that’s behind the minimize within the site visitors”. “The ramp-up after the strike wasn’t as quick as we’d have favored,” he stated.
Nonetheless, Sorahan stated that Boeing’s administration gave the impression to be doing a greater job, and that morale was good on the manufacturing unit ground on a latest go to to Seattle.
Ryanair’s income after tax fell by 12% within the first 9 months of its 2025 monetary 12 months to €1.94bn (£1.6bn). Sorahan stated that was brought on by the “have to stimulate prospects again initially of the 12 months” with decrease fares.
Nonetheless, Sorahan stated the European airline trade can be “capacity-constrained”, which might result in upward stress on costs.
We’ve turned a nook on fares. In a capacity-constrained market my intestine would say that fares will likely be up within the coming 12 months.
The delays to Boeing deliveries of latest planes are stopping Ryanair from taking full benefit of rising demand for air site visitors. Most forecasts for international air journey counsel that flight numbers will enhance quickly within the coming a long time, with a consequent enhance in carbon emissions within the absence of carbon-neutral fuels resembling sustainable aviation gas.
Right here is the total story on Good Power
Morgan Stanley has minimize its forecast for UK progress this 12 months to 0.9% from 1.3%, mirroring estimates from Wall Road rivals Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
The US funding financial institution cited a slowdown within the financial system and indicators of labour market weak spot.
The Financial institution of England has predicted progress of 1.5% this 12 months, partly because of a short-tem increase from a rise in public spending introduced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.
The UK authorities is beneath rising stress to get momentum again into the financial system amid warnings that companies plan to chop jobs and lift costs, whereas tens of millions of households imagine their funds will worsen this 12 months.
Earlier than a serious speech this week by Reeves, designed to restate Labour’s dedication to bettering the financial system, the CBI stated non-public sector corporations have been urgently assessing their budgets to offset measures introduced in final October’s finances.
The foyer group stated it anticipated one other “important fall” in enterprise exercise over the following three months. This measure has now been flat or falling since mid-2022, when Liz Truss was briefly prime minister.
Alpesh Paleja, the interim deputy chief economist on the CBI, stated:
After a grim lead-up to Christmas, the brand new 12 months hasn’t introduced any sense of renewal, with companies nonetheless anticipating a major fall in exercise.
Good Power agrees to takeover by Dubai agency

Jasper Jolly
Britain’s Good Power has struck a close to £100m takeover by an organization managed by a member of Abu Dhabi’s ruling household.
The retail vitality firm stated it had agreed a cope with Dubai-headquartered Esyasoft for a money provide of £4.90 per share, valuing it at £99.4m.
The share worth of Good Power, listed on London’s junior Different Funding Market, rose by a fifth this morning to £4.75. The provide was two-thirds greater than Good Power’s share worth on the day earlier than Esyasoft’s curiosity was first revealed in October.
Esyasoft is finally managed by the Abu Dhabi Worldwide Holding Firm (IHC), the funding firm chaired by Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the son of the United Arab Emirates’ founder, and a part of the Abu Dhabi ruling household.
IHC owns firms concerned in oil and gasoline drilling, together with servicing the large progress of the US shale gasoline trade. Nonetheless, IHC additionally counts solar energy amongst its investments, and Esyasoft focuses on energy distribution.
Good Power serves about 245,000 prospects within the UK, offering 100% renewable electrical energy in addition to specialising in letting prospects promote solar energy again to the grid. It was based in 1999 by Juliet Davenport, who left the corporate in 2021.
The takeover would give a windfall to vitality entrepreneur Dale Vince, whose holding firm Inexperienced Britain Group is the biggest shareholder in Good Power, with a 26% stake.
Nigel Pocklington, chief govt of Good Power, stated:
In the present day we have now a possibility with a accomplice that shares our sustainable vitality imaginative and prescient and has the assets to speed up our objective considerably. While the board stays assured in Good Power’s strategic supply as a publicly listed firm, Esyasoft’s monetary assets, along with its presence in new markets, current a major enhance in our potential. The provide values the corporate at a major premium, providing shareholders a great return for his or her help for the corporate.
Davenport supplied her backing for the deal. The funding would give the “alternative to scale the Good Power propositions” and “make an actual distinction to local weather change”, she stated.
I based Good Power 25 years in the past to be a pioneer within the provision of unpolluted energy to all prospects within the UK.
The vitality trade again then was very completely different, based round fossil fuels and designed to be a centralised system.
Carsten Brzeski, international head of macro at ING, has appeared on the German Ifo numbers.
The slight enhance in Germany’s most distinguished main indicator doesn’t but sign an imminent financial rebound. As an alternative, the financial system stays caught in stagnation with extra draw back than upside dangers within the brief time period.
As Lola Younger, one among Britain’s new musical abilities, sang final 12 months, “There’s a flicker of sunshine; with out the darkish, the celebrities can’t shine shiny”. In the present day’s Ifo index is such a flicker of sunshine for the German financial system, admittedly a really imprecise one.
Germany’s most distinguished main indicator got here in at 85.1 in January from 84.7 in December, however nonetheless under its 85.6 in November. Whereas the present evaluation element elevated to the very best degree since late summer season, expectations dropped as soon as once more to the bottom degree in a 12 months.
It’s apparent that the outcomes of the US elections and coverage uncertainty in Germany forward of the upcoming elections are nonetheless weighing on sentiment.
Wanting forward, it’s going to take no less than till the German elections on 23 February and the next coalition negotiations earlier than the financial system can get a brand new, hopefully optimistic, impulse. Till then, the draw back dangers will dominate with the potential financial insurance policies from the brand new US administration.
Some 10% of German exports go to the US (of which the biggest half is automotive) and any US tariffs would hit an already beleaguered sector. Nonetheless, much more essential is the affect that tax cuts and deregulation within the US – mixed with already low vitality costs – would have on German competitiveness, which is clearly detrimental. German firms may step up investments within the US at the price of investments in Germany.
As reported earlier, GSK will spend as much as £50m on a mission with the College of Oxford to analyze whether or not vaccines may very well be used to stop some cancers.
Scientists are more and more optimistic in regards to the potential for most cancers vaccines, which intention to assist the affected person’s personal immune system combat in opposition to cancers. A number of the vaccines already present process assessments on sufferers, together with within the UK, and interventions are tailor-made to the person’s tumours.
“Most cancers doesn’t come from nowhere,” stated Sarah Blagden, the professor of experimental oncology at Oxford, in an interview with BBC Radio 4’s In the present day programme.
Cancers can take as much as 20 years, generally much more, to develop. The conventional cell transitions to grow to be cancerous. At that time most cancers are invisible.
The aim of the vaccine is to not vaccinate in opposition to established most cancers, however to truly vaccinate in opposition to that pre-cancer stage.
Blagden will lead the analysis programme alongside Timothy Clay and Ramon Kemp of GSK.
German enterprise sentiment improves unexpectedly
In Germany, Europe’s largest financial system, enterprise sentiment unexpectedly improved this month.
The Ifo institute stated its enterprise local weather index elevated to 85.1 in January, from 84.7 in December, primarily because of a extra optimistic evaluation of the present scenario.
Nonetheless, expectations for the longer term worsened once more, as firms proceed to be pessimistic.
In manufacturing, enterprise sentiment worsened additional, as firms have been much more skeptical in regards to the coming months whereas saying the present enterprise scenario had improved. Incoming orders proceed to say no. Capability utilisation remained little unchanged at 76.5%, effectively under the long-term common of 83.4%.
Within the service sector, the index rose considerably, as firms assessed their present enterprise scenario as significantly higher, whereas expectations additionally improved. Particularly, IT service suppliers seen their outlook as much less detrimental.
In commerce, enterprise sentiment was unchanged, as wholesale merchants assessed their present scenario as extra optimistic. Nonetheless, expectations have been barely extra pessimistic, pushed by retailers.
In building, confidence worsened once more because of firms’ poorer expectations, whereas the present scenario was seen as barely higher.
European tech shares rattled by China’s AI push
The pan-European Stoxx 600 has misplaced 0.75% this morning, with know-how shares down by 4.5%.
The Dutch chipmaker ASML slid by 8.2% whereas Germany’s Siemens Power, which offers {hardware} for AI infrastructure, misplaced 4.1% and France’s digital automation agency Schneider Electrical fell by 6.8%.
Frankfurt-listed shares of Nvidia dropped by 7%, whereas Tesla , Amazon and Meta fell by greater than 2% in early European buying and selling.
Final week, the Chinese language lab DeepSeek has rolled out a free AI assistant that it says makes use of lower-cost chips and fewer information, kicking off a worldwide AI race. It threatens to problem the belief in monetary markets that AI will drive demand alongside a provide chain from chipmakers to information centres.
DeepSeek unveiled R1, an AI that analysts say rivals OpenAI’s prime reasoning mannequin, o1. Astonishingly, it matches o1’s capabilities whereas utilizing a fraction of the computing energy – and at a tenth of the associated fee.
Wong Kok Hoong, head of fairness gross sales buying and selling at Maybank, instructed Reuters:
It’s a case of a crowded commerce, and now DeepSeek is giving a motive for traders and merchants to unwind.
Shares in AI-focused startup investor SoftBank slid by 8.3%. Final week the Japanese agency introduced a $19bn dedication to fund Stargate, a data-centre three way partnership with OpenAI.
Richard Hunter, head of markets on the funding platform interactive investor, has appeared on the Chinese language startup DeepSeek.
Its new AI app comes forward of company outcomes from the massive US tech firms.
There seems to be a brand new child on the tech block and the early indicators are that the final week of January will present the primary sustained bout of volatility within the New Yr.
Chinese language AI firm DeepSeek has launched a brand new product which has a fraction of the event prices seen within the US and which may additionally present some defence in opposition to any restrictions positioned on China by the US as this specific battle intensifies. Japanese chip-related shares dropped sharply in a single day and though it’s too early to say with complete certainty, US futures are at the moment trying weak forward of the opening bell at the moment.
It’s far too early to explain DeepSeek as an existential risk to US-based AI options. By the identical token, it’s going to nearly actually put the cat among the many pigeons as traders scramble to evaluate the potential harm it may have on a burgeoning trade which has powered a lot of the achieve seen in the primary indices over the past couple of years. The rising information over the weekend of an rising risk to the US dominance seen up to now comes forward of per week which sees 4 of the “Magnificent Seven” report earnings, specifically Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple. Fairly other than the outcomes they supply, the bigger query has instantly grow to be whether or not the a whole lot of billions of greenback funding in AI wants re-evaluation.
The information comes after a weaker shut on Friday for the US market, when the benchmark S&P 500 gave up positive aspects which noticed it briefly break new highs, and ended the week 0.3% decrease. Hunter added:
The brand new president’s pro-business rhetoric has been optimistic for the markets up to now, whereas his promised extreme actions on tariffs have but to materialise, no less than for the second. Regardless of the weak spot and main into the top of January, the Dow Jones has added 4.4% up to now this 12 months, with positive aspects of three.7% and three.3% for the S&P500 and Nasdaq respectively.
Fairly other than any AI concerns, traders might want to spin a number of plates this week. Company updates swap into prime gear, with releases from the likes of Boeing, Starbucks, Intel, IBM, Chevron and Exxon Mobil after what has been a promising begin to the season.
The core Private Consumption Expenditures report will even be launched on Friday and, whereas the Federal Reserve’s most popular measure of inflation will give the most recent view on rising costs, it’s going to additionally come after the Fed has introduced its newest curiosity resolution, the place the market has overwhelmingly priced in a no-change resolution.
Shares in WHSmith jumped as a lot as 8% after it put its 500 UK excessive road shops up on the market.
The shock transfer to hoist the “on the market” signal over its over its legacy retail enterprise creates uncertainty for its 5,000 workers, however was welcomed by traders.
The 232-year-old chain is in talks with a handful of potential bidders, having kicked off the possible sale course of on the finish of final 12 months.
Whereas negotiations are centered on its 500 retailers – which promote newspapers, books, stationery, playing cards and items – it’s understood that using the model itself will likely be up for negotiation with any potential purchaser.
Introduction: GSK strikes £50m cope with Oxford College on most cancers vaccines; greenback rises after Trump U-turn on Colombia tariffs
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world financial system.
Britain’s second-biggest drugmaker GSK has struck a cope with the College of Oxford beneath which it’s going to pump as much as £50m into early most cancers analysis to develop new therapies.
The partnership lasts no less than three years, and can deal with how most cancers develops that would inform future growth of most cancers vaccines.
Most cancers take years and even a long time to develop from regular cells to precancerous cells to most cancers. Oxford College specialises within the examine of precancer biology together with the identification and sequencing of neoantigens, or tumour-specific proteins that immediate the immune system to recognise most cancers. An energetic intervention like a vaccine or focused drugs may stop them from progressing to most cancers.
Professor Irene Tracey, vice-chancellor of the College of Oxford, hailed the partnership as “a step ahead in most cancers analysis”.
Tony Wooden, GSK’s chief scientific officer, stated:
We’re happy to additional strengthen our relationship with Oxford College and to mix the deep data of Oxford and GSK scientists. By exploring precancer biology and constructing on GSK’s experience within the science of the immune system, we intention to generate key insights for folks vulnerable to creating most cancers.
GSK already has a partnership with the Institute of Molecular and Computational Medication in Oxford, which focuses on neurological illnesses, in addition to different collaborations together with one with the College of Cambridge introduced in October, which focuses on hard-to-treat kidney and respiratory illnesses.
The US greenback rose after Donald Trump threatened tariffs and sanctions on Colombia for turning away navy plane carrying deported migrants, earlier than a last-minute deal was agreed.
The greenback is up by 0.3% in opposition to a basket of main currencies.
The US and Colombia pulled again from the brink of a commerce warfare on Sunday after the White Home stated the Colombians had agreed to just accept navy plane carrying deported migrants.
In an announcement late on Sunday, the White Home stated Colombia had agreed to just accept the migrants and Washington wouldn’t impose its threatened penalties.
European inventory markets have opened decrease, and US inventory futures and a number of other Asian markets have additionally fallen after the Chinese language startup DeepSeek launched a free open-source AI mannequin to rival OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Merchants are apprehensive in regards to the affect of the low-cost Chinese language app on Western tech shares.
The UK’s FTSE 100 index dropped by 0.3% or 31 factors, to eight,470, whereas Germany’s Dax misplaced 0.9%, France’s CAC was flat and Spain’s Ibex and Italy’s FTSE MIB each fell by round 0.3%.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell by 0.9% with tech shares down, whereas Hong Kong’s Grasp Seng rose by 0.6% and South Korea’s Kospi gained by 0.85%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite slipped by 0.06% whereas the Shenzhen Composite fell by 1.3%.
The Agenda
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9am GMT: Germany Ifo Enterprise confidence for January
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3pm GMT: US New residence gross sales for December
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3.35pm GMT: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks